MTJ's NFL Picks

Each leg shows the posted line, then a safer and a bolder alternate number. Swap in the safer number when the matchup looks shaky or you want a higher hit rate; the bolder number when you love the spot and want a bigger payout. Books price same-game correlation differently, so check the payout in your app.

These aren't our best bets. Most of them will lose. They're here because the price looks bigger than the real chance — if we're right about the edge, a handful of hits over a season pays for the misses. Keep stakes at 1–2 units.

Quarterbacks whose passing-yard line looks off, with our projection and safer / bolder alternate numbers. Lines are approximate (VegasInsider consensus); "check book" means no line was posted when we looked.

Pass catchers whose receiving-yard line looks off, plus reception and alternate-yardage options. Lines are approximate (VegasInsider consensus); "check book" means no line was posted when we looked.

Ball carriers whose rushing-yard line looks off, plus carries and alternate-yardage options. Lines are approximate (VegasInsider consensus); "check book" means no line was posted when we looked.

Anytime (1+) and 2+ touchdown prices side by side, with the chance each price implies and our estimate. Lines are approximate (VegasInsider consensus); "check book" means no line was posted when we looked.

Picks from the vetted experts (see "Vetted experts" at the bottom for their records and criteria), in our own words, with links to the originals. Each one shows where we stand. Their picks feed our analysis, and we're free to land on the same bet.